Forecast Forex Market Survey Forecast
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Histogram indicator forex without redrawing. The had a tough week, surrendering to the strength of the US dollar and falling to fresh 21-month lows. A mix of events awaits Aussie traders. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged as expected and Australian retail sales rose by 0.3% as expected.
The Australian Dollar suffered from the disappointing manufacturing PMI’s, both the official and the unofficial figures pointed to a significant slowdown. China is Australia’s No. 1 trading partner. The US Dollar enjoyed robust data, the breakout of US 10-year yields to the highest levels since 2011, and hawkish words by Fed Chair Powell, which opened the door to tight monetary policy.
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AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: • ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 00:30. This gauge of Australian employment precedes the official jobs report released by the government. The number of job advertisements dropped by 0.6% in August and we may see a bounce in September.
• NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. The National Australia Bank’s monthly survey of 350 businesses fell to 4 points in September and the trend is generally to the downside. Another drop cannot be ruled out. • Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. This bank survey focuses on consumers.
The 1,200-strong survey fell sharply in the past two months. After a slide of 3% in September, we could see a bounce back in October, as spring begins in Australia. • Luci Ellis talks Wednesday, 22:30. The RBA Assistant Governor will talk in Melbourne and may provide hints on monetary policy. The event is titled “Delivering Growth with Equity.” • MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 00:00. The Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Expectations measure showed expectations for an annual increase of 4% in August, above the current level of price increases.
MI’s measure complements official inflation data which is released only once per quarter. We will now get the data for September. • RBA Financial Stability Review: Friday, 1:30. The central bank publishes a report on financial stability twice per year. Apart from the assessment on stability, the publication also provides economic figures and may hint about monetary policy. • Home Loans: Friday, 00:30.
New loans increased by 0.4% in July after a substantial drop of 1.1% in June. While this is a volatile economic indicator, the data provides a snapshot of the housing sector. A drop of 0.9% is projected. • Chinese trade balance: Friday, 2:00.